The biggest concern of the battery industry in the future
Since 2016, China's battery energy storage project has entered an accelerated construction phase, with an annual growth rate of more than 70%. At the end of the year, the national battery energy storage capacity has reached 243,000 kilowatts. Lithium batteries will play a key role in these aspects due to their fast response, high charge and discharge efficiency, high number of cycles, and fast technology upgrades.
The cost of batteries is one of the most important issues in the industry. Reducing the cost of batteries requires a breakthrough in the entire industry chain and key links. First of all, reducing raw material costs is the most important part of reducing battery costs. If raw materials can be reduced to 3-5 million yuan / ton, it is more reasonable. In addition, issues such as improved yield and consistency in manufacturing, material recovery and recycling are important factors influencing battery costs.
By the end of 2016, the energy density of China's power battery cells has reached 220Wh/kg, and the price is as low as 1.5 yuan/Wh. Compared with 2002, the energy density has increased by 1.7 times, and the price has dropped by 60%. The Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, The gathering area of the four major battery industries in the Central Plains has become the world's largest power battery producer. Independent equipment has grown from scratch, and many battery companies have more than 70% localization level, and some have reached more than 90%.
At present, the overall capacity of lithium battery companies has exceeded the demand of existing vehicles, but the really good battery companies are still relatively scarce. The so-called overcapacity is only a structural excess, or a surplus in a certain period of time. This stage of excess capacity may not be enough in the future to face the rapid development of the new energy automobile industry, so it should be viewed dialectically. Overcapacity problem.
"Automobile Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions (2017)" (Draft for Comment) has not yet formed a final draft since its release. Many companies follow the "annual production capacity of lithium-ion power battery cells is not less than 8 billion watt-hours". The threshold has increased capacity, which has also caused a further overcapacity in the industry. Our association believes that capacity targets should be properly adjusted. The industry threshold is too high, which not only causes a serious overcapacity, but also limits the development of some SMEs.
BYD has two strategies for energy density: First, lithium iron phosphate, mainly used in the bus field, the current energy density can reach 156Wh / kg, although some people think that the development of lithium iron phosphate is limited, but we think its future development space is huge, BYD is actively deploying; the second is the ternary battery, the current energy density is 200Wh/kg, we are also actively deploying.